A friend asked me to comment on an article in "Foreign Policy".
Well, this will be a bit of fun! There's nothing so predictable as "Foreign Policy" bloviating about how the elites should run our lives with "realism", "centrism", and a credulous faith in the good intentions of tyrants.
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So here's my reply to my friend:
Thank you for sharing this article. I appreciate the opportunity to think about the question seriously rather than simply react to the latest headline.
I would start with a more fundamental question than whether Trump gets some elements of foreign policy right or wrong.
After World War II, the Greatest Generation reached a hard-earned conclusion: the world should not be governed primarily by brute force. Having seen what happened when powerful nations pursued their interests without meaningful legal or institutional constraints, they worked to build a system that would resolve disputes through law, diplomacy, alliances, and international institutions.
That system was imperfect. Every human institution is imperfect.
Yet it coincided with an era of unprecedented prosperity and relative stability among the major powers. We naturally focus on the wars we know about, but we often forget how extraordinarily violent the century before 1945 was. The postwar order did not eliminate conflict, but it substantially reduced the likelihood that great-power competition would repeatedly erupt into catastrophes like the two world wars.
Today, however, a growing movement represented in different ways by Trump, Putin, and Xi proposes a return to a world in which power is the primary currency and might increasingly makes right. I believe that is a mistake. Such a system benefits a small number of people at the top while making everyone else less secure.
That brings me to "America First."
As a slogan, it has obvious appeal. Every nation should consider its own interests. The problem is not the slogan but the policy that has followed from it. In practice, "America First" has too often become "Never Trust America."
Allies are uncertain whether commitments made today will be honored tomorrow. Trade arrangements, treaties, diplomatic understandings, and security guarantees become difficult to sustain when partners assume they may disappear with the next political whim.
Anyone who has worked on a team, whether in sports, business, government, or volunteer organizations, understands the problem. Successful teams depend upon trust and reliability. If no one believes your commitments are durable, cooperation collapses. Nations are no different.
As a result, America becomes weaker rather than stronger. Influence is not merely a product of military or economic power. It is also a product of credibility.
For that reason, I find it largely unproductive to search for "what Trump gets right" in foreign policy without first addressing the larger framework. The article itself does not even try to identify concrete foreign-policy successes and fails to acknowledge damaged alliances, failed military ventures, trade conflicts, and impulsive decision-making.
I am especially unconvinced by its embrace of "realism." History suggests that American strength derives not simply from power but from the values that make others want to cooperate with us. The Greatest Generation learned this lesson the hard way. America's most enduring advantage has never been that we are the strongest. At various times others have matched or exceeded American power in particular domains. Our strength has been our ability to attract partners through principles, institutions, and predictable rules.
Nor do I accept the claim that today's great powers are primarily divided by ideology. In the most important respects, Trump's worldview has more in common with Putin's and Xi's preference for centralized authority, personal loyalty, and transactional politics than it does with the postwar liberal order that previous American presidents of both parties largely supported. The labels differ, but the impulse toward concentrating power in a single leader is remarkably similar.
So if we are looking for a positive alternative, my answer is straightforward:
We should recommit ourselves to the rule of law, at home and abroad.
We should rebuild trust with allies.
We should strengthen international institutions rather than casually discard them.
We should pursue diplomacy before force.
And we should remember that America's greatest strategic asset is not fear of our power but confidence in our values.
That may sound old-fashioned. But the record of the last eighty years suggests it has been far more successful than the alternative.