Thursday, May 08, 2008

Relax! MI&FL will get delegates ...

I have no inside knowledge, but here's some basic principles.
  • Obama is not foolish; his team has had a lot of time to think this through.
  • All the Democrats really, really want to win the White House in November, and also the 60 votes in the Senate needed to stop Republican filibusters
  • Therefore, they are not going to do anything that would let the GOP accuse them of going against the will of the majority ("count every vote" etc.)
  • Therefore, super delegates will not overrule to pledged delegates
  • Obama will finish the primaries leading in pledged delegates
  • Therefore, the super delegates will give Obama will have enough delegates to win even if Hillary gets the majority of MI& FL deletegates.
  • Therefore, once Obama's nomination is secured, there will be a deal to give Hillary a face-saving majority of MI&FL delegates but not enough to overturn the Obama nomination.

Hillary may see this coming and quit at a time that lets her save face; that means MI&FL get their delegates a little earlier, that's all.

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