Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Lying About Deficits (A Parable)

Some fools say that deficits aren't bad if the deficit is less than "average".
To explain how stupid that is, let's use some rough numbers (not necessarily accurate, but they show the concept).

Once upon a time, USA.com wanted to borrow some money to cover operating expenses (not investments).

Its CEO, Reagan, wanted to borrow 2% of its income. The Banks said "You're up to 10% of your income, fine."
Then Reagan wanted3% more of its income. The Banks said "You're up to 13% of your income."
Then its CEO, Reagan, borrowed 4% more of its income. The Banks said "You're up to 17% of your income."
Then Reagan wanted 4% more. The Banks said "You're up to 21% of your income."
Then Reagan wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 25% of your income."
Then Reagan wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 29% of your income."
Then Reagan wanted 3% more. Banks said "You're up to 32% of your income."
Then Reagan wanted 3% more. Banks said "You're up to 35% of your income."

Then USC.com got a new CEO, Bush.

Bush wanted 3% more. Banks said "You're up to 38%."
Bush wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 42%."
Bush wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 46%."
Bush wanted 5% more. Banks said "You're up to 51%."

Then USC.com got a new CEO, Clinton.
Clinton continued to borrow, but less and less until finally he started paying off the debt.

Then USC.com got a new CEO, W.

W wanted 1% more. Banks said "You're up to 52%."
W wanted 3% more. Banks said "You're up to 55%."
W wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 59%."
W wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 63%."
W wanted 4% more. Banks said "You're up to 67%."

Then W wanted to borrow another 3%. Why not? 3% more is less than the AVERAGE of the past decades.

The banks said, "WHAT???? ARE YOU CRAZY??? You're DEEP in DEBT. The AVERAGE of what you borrow per year means NOTHING; in assessing your credit worthiness, how much you owe is more important."

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